Warehouse & eCommerce Fulfilment Market in Poland in 2026

Market Fundamentals: Europe's Fifth-Largest Hub

The industrial and logistics landscape in Poland has transitioned into a sophisticated phase of structural maturation as it enters the 2025-2026 period. As of the third quarter of 2025, the total modern warehouse and logistics stock reached an unprecedented 36.4 million square meters, solidifying Poland's position as the fifth-largest market in Europe.

This trajectory reflects a strategic pivot toward high-specification, sustainable infrastructure capable of supporting the increasingly complex requirements of global e-commerce and nearshored manufacturing. The market is currently navigating a delicate balance between a cyclical slowdown in new supply and a resilient demand profile characterized by a shift toward lease renewals and a "flight to quality".

Macroeconomic Context and Performance

The performance of the logistics sector remains fundamentally tethered to Poland's broader economic resilience. Following a stabilization period in 2024 with GDP growth of 2.9%, the Polish economy is projected to accelerate, with growth rates of 3.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. This growth is particularly notable when compared to the broader Eurozone, which is expected to average a much slower 1.5% annually.

Between 1995 and 2024, Poland's real GDP increased by 221%, making it a primary growth leader in the European Union. This long-term stability provides a predictable environment for capital-intensive investments in logistics infrastructure.

Inflationary pressures, which hit a peak of 4.9% in the first quarter of 2025, are anticipated to moderate toward 3.7% by 2026. This stabilization of the Consumer Price Index is critical for the logistics sector, as it directly influences construction costs, rental indexation, and consumer spending power.

Warehouse Market Structure and Regional Dynamics

The warehouse market in 2025 is characterized by a "moderate rebound" following a period of subdued developer activity. Total stock crossed the 36 million square meter threshold by mid-2025. Despite this milestone, new supply in the first quarter of 2025 was approximately 679,700 square meters, representing a 20% year-on-year decline.

The volume of space under construction reflected an even sharper slump of 41% compared to the previous year, as developers focused on securing tenants before breaking ground. Geographical concentration remains high, with Mazovia, Silesia, and Lower Silesia accounting for the largest shares of total resources.

Vacancy rates reached a national average of 8.2% by Q3 2025, showing stability compared to the previous quarter. However, regional variations are stark; while hubs like Łódź and Warsaw show high absorption, peripheral markets like Lubuskie and Świętokrzyskie recorded vacancy rates as high as 17.2%.

Demand is increasingly dominated by lease renewals and renegotiations. In the first half of 2025, renewals accounted for 54% of total leasing activity. This trend reflects tenant caution amid economic uncertainty and a preference for optimizing existing locations rather than incurring the capital expenditure of relocation.

E-commerce Fulfillment: The Primary Growth Engine

The e-commerce sector remains the primary engine of demand for the Polish warehouse market, with a projected growth trajectory that significantly outpaces traditional retail. In Q1 2025, the share of online spending in total retail sales averaged 9.0%, with the value of online sales increasing by 9.2% year-on-year.

Long-term forecasts suggest the e-commerce market in Poland could reach between USD 88 billion and USD 109 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.7% from 2025 onwards.

Allegro: The Marketplace Dominant Force

Allegro continues to lead the Polish marketplace landscape, reaching over 80% of Polish online shoppers with a user base exceeding 22 million. In early 2025, Allegro reported an 8.9% increase in gross merchandise value (GMV), reaching PLN 14.78 billion. To solidify its dominance, Allegro is pivoting toward a comprehensive "operator" model.

A cornerstone of this strategy is the construction of a central logistics hub in Piotrków Trybunalski, scheduled for launch in Q4 2026. This facility, spanning 27,000 square meters, will feature automated sorting lines and 144 docks, serving as a primary node for Allegro's domestic and international shipments to Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary.

InPost: Rewriting Last-Mile Delivery

InPost has fundamentally rewritten the rules of last-mile delivery in Poland. By 2023, Poland already had the highest parcel locker density in Europe (1.08 per 1,000 citizens), far outpacing Germany (0.18) and the UK (0.23). InPost delivered over one billion parcels in 2024 and ended 2025 with 61,196 lockers across Europe—a 30% year-on-year increase.

This out-of-home (OOH) delivery boom is driven by urban convenience and a significant cost advantage, as lockers reduce last-mile expenses by over 30% compared to traditional doorstep delivery.

Amazon's Growing Presence

Amazon is also intensifying its competition in the region. In early 2025, Amazon introduced its "Easy Ship" service in Europe, allowing marketplace sellers to leverage Amazon's logistics network more directly. While Allegro remains the "must-use" platform for sellers in Poland, Amazon's global infrastructure and Prime fulfillment capabilities are exerting pressure on local players to modernize their logistics offerings.

Port Polska (CPK): Game-Changing Infrastructure

The most ambitious infrastructure project in Central Europe is the Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK), recently rebranded as "Port Polska". This mega-project integrates air, rail, and road transport into a single hub located 40 kilometers west of Warsaw. Construction is scheduled to begin in 2026, with the first phase of the airport and the Warsaw-Lodz high-speed rail line set to open simultaneously in 2032.

The project, estimated to cost PLN 155 billion (USD 43 billion), aims to handle 34-40 million passengers annually in its first phase, eventually expanding to 100 million. From a logistics perspective, Port Polska is designed to become the "heart of Europe," removing domestic and international connectivity barriers.

The integrated "Cargo City" and the hub's proximity to the A2 motorway and high-speed rail network are expected to revolutionize cargo handling in the CEE region, reducing dependence on Western European hubs like Frankfurt or Charles de Gaulle.

In addition to Port Polska, the Polish government is advancing an Integrated Railway Network (ZSK), which will expand the national rail system by over 2,000 kilometers by 2035. In 2026, major tenders for high-speed rail sections—including 350 km/h lines—will be launched, marking Poland's entry into the "premier league" of rail nations.

Nearshoring and Supply Chain Realignment

Poland has emerged as a primary beneficiary of the "nearshoring" and "friendshoring" waves sweeping through North America and Western Europe. As companies rethink the traditional model of relying on distant, low-cost Asian hubs, Poland's EU membership, strategic location, and technically skilled talent pool make it a natural landing spot for relocated production and distribution capacity.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Poland has broadened beyond low-cost manufacturing into high-tech sectors and logistics. The stock of FDI in Poland now exceeds USD 300 billion, with real estate—specifically modern logistics and warehouse space—rising to nearly USD 50 billion.

For Scandinavian businesses, Poland is increasingly viewed as a "close neighbor" partner rather than a distant outsourcing destination. Shipping goods from Poland to Scandinavia takes only a few days, compared to two months from Asia, offering a strategic edge in terms of agility and supply chain resilience.

Warehouse Automation and Industry 4.0

The convergence of labor shortages and high fulfillment expectations is driving aggressive adoption of warehouse automation. Robotics have shifted from "nice-to-have" to "must-have" as firms seek to maintain productivity amid workforce challenges. In 2025-2026, the focus is on modular, PC-based programming and PC-powered autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) that can be easily updated and scaled.

Leading Automation Deployments

Exotec has partnered with Polish logistics company ILS Logistics (a subsidiary of Inter Cars) to deploy its Skypod robotic system across 12 locations in Central and Eastern Europe through 2026. The headquarters in Zakroczym was the first to receive the system, hosting 200 autonomous robots and 60,000 storage containers. This automation allows ILS to meet the demand of supplying customers up to three times a day, a logistical requirement that was previously difficult to manage with manual processes.

Industry trade fairs, such as "Robotics Warsaw" and "Intralogistica Poland Expo" (scheduled for February 2026), highlight the growing importance of process automation, artificial intelligence, and WMS software. These technologies are not only increasing efficiency but also upskilling the existing workforce, shifting staff from repetitive manual tasks to roles involving system monitoring, quality control, and exception handling.

Sustainability, ESG, and Regulatory Compliance

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria are no longer voluntary considerations but central pillars of the Polish warehouse market strategy. As of 2025, 54.2% of all certified space in Poland is in the warehouse and logistics sector. Certified warehouse space grew by a record 9 million square meters in a single year, reflecting a 52% annual increase.

Green Certification Leadership

BREEAM remains the dominant multi-criteria certificate, holding an 88% share of total certified space. By March 2025, there was over 44.5 million square meters of BREEAM-certified space in Poland. Leading developers like Prologis have adopted policies where all new buildings meet "Excellent" ratings, and even existing facilities over 10 years old are being recertified to meet modern sustainability standards.

Regulatory Landscape

The regulatory landscape is becoming increasingly stringent. The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) requires large companies to disclose comprehensive ESG information starting from 2025-2026. Furthermore, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive stage on January 1, 2026, charging costs based on the emissions intensity of imported goods.

This "green tariff" aims to create a level playing field for EU producers and will likely further incentivize nearshoring as companies seek to minimize the carbon footprint of their supply chains.

Labor Market: Challenges and Adaptations

The structural labor shortage remains the most significant operational hurdle for the sector. Unemployment in Poland's logistics hubs—particularly those near the German border—is extremely tight, as workers often commute to Germany for higher wages. Consequently, Polish employers are increasingly using international recruitment agencies and digital portals to fill elementary roles in sorting, packaging, and distribution.

Wage growth has moderated after substantial 13-14% increases in 2024. In 2026-2027, annual wage growth is projected to slow to 5-6% as inflation stabilizes and companies prioritize cost control through automation. However, the minimum wage rose to PLN 4,666 monthly in January 2025, creating persistent upward pressure on general logistics wages.

New transparency laws mandated in late 2025 also require employers to disclose pay ranges in job advertisements, a move aimed at reducing earnings inequality but one that also increases the competitive nature of recruitment.

Strategic Outlook: Poland Toward 2026

The Polish warehouse and e-commerce fulfillment market enters 2026 as a sophisticated, resilient hub that has successfully navigated global macroeconomic turbulence. The structural transition from a high-volume, low-cost destination to a high-efficiency, sustainability-led logistics node is nearly complete.

Key Strategic Advantages

The dominance of marketplace leaders like Allegro, the revolutionary expansion of InPost's locker network, and the massive infrastructure commitments of the Port Polska program ensure that Poland will remain the logistical backbone of Central and Eastern Europe.

While labor shortages and rising operational costs remain persistent challenges, the aggressive adoption of warehouse automation and a record-setting commitment to green building certifications (BREEAM/LEED) provide a clear roadmap for long-term competitiveness.

For investors and tenants alike, the Polish market in 2025-2026 offers a unique combination of European stability and emerging-market growth potential, anchored by its strategic role in the global shift toward nearshoring and sustainable supply chain design.