The Dutch logistics market ends 2026 stable rather than booming: warehouse demand is recovering, investment has slowed, Rotterdam’s volumes are flat and online spending has levelled off. 2027 is shaped less by growth than by new rules and costs: the first full year of the truck toll, stricter zero-emission zones, paperless freight documents, the first CBAM carbon declarations and continued grid congestion. This outlook summarises 2026 and explains the logistics trends to plan for in 2027.
Key takeaways for 2027
- Road transport gets more expensive: 2027 is the first full year of the Dutch truck toll, without the 2026 discount.
- Older vans lose city access: Euro 5 vans are banned from Dutch zero-emission zones from 1 January 2027.
- Freight goes paperless: from 9 July 2027 all EU authorities must accept electronic freight documents (eFTI).
- Carbon becomes a cost line: importers of steel, aluminium and other CBAM goods file their first annual declaration by 30 September 2027.
- Space is still tight where it matters: prime warehouse rents keep rising while grid capacity limits new sites.
Netherlands logistics market at a glance
| Indicator | Latest figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Freight and logistics market size | USD 55.9 billion in 2026; about USD 58 billion in 2027 (estimate) | Mordor Intelligence; 2027 is our calculation at its 4.18% growth rate |
| GDP growth | 1.2% in 2027, inflation around 3% | CPB, September 2026 |
| Logistics real estate stock | 51.4 million sqm, vacancy 6.3% | Savills, 2026 |
| Warehouse take-up | About 1.8 million sqm, +12% year on year | Cushman & Wakefield, Q2 2026 |
| Logistics investment | About €772 million in H1 2026 | Cushman & Wakefield |
| Port of Rotterdam containers | 14.2 million TEU in 2025; 7.0 million TEU in H1 2026 (flat) | Port of Rotterdam |
| Schiphol air cargo | 1.43 million tonnes in 2025, −4% | Schiphol |
| Online spending | €35.7 billion in 2025, −1%; products +2% | Thuiswinkel Markt Monitor |
| Logistics performance | 4.1 out of 5, joint 3rd worldwide | World Bank LPI 2023 |
2026 in review: what happened in Dutch logistics
- Warehouse demand recovered. After a weak 2025 (about 1.7 million sqm), occupier take-up rose about 12% year on year in the Q2 2026 report, with around 70% in the southern Netherlands and the Randstad.
- Vacancy rose, then started to stabilise. Speculative completions pushed vacancy to 6.3%, but the development pipeline is shrinking to about 1.9 million sqm, and prime rents kept rising.
- Investment slowed sharply. Investors put about €772 million into industrial and logistics property in H1 2026; Q1 alone was 60% lower than a year earlier.
- Rotterdam held steady. Container volumes were flat in H1 2026 at about 7.0 million TEU. Deepsea volumes grew 5.2% on the back of Asian imports, while transhipment fell 20% because the terminals ran out of capacity. Rotterdam regained its place as Europe’s busiest container port from Antwerp-Bruges.
- Air cargo shrank. Schiphol handled 1.43 million tonnes in 2025, 4% less than in 2024, with full freighters carrying 56%.
- The truck toll started. The distance-based vrachtwagenheffing went live on 1 July 2026, with a temporary 22.3% discount from September to December 2026.
- New EU rules took effect: the CBAM definitive regime (January), the €3 duty on low-value parcels (July) and the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (August).
- Labour costs rose. The TLN collective agreement added 4% to wages, and temporary workers became entitled to the same pay package as permanent staff.
Logistics trends in 2027: what to expect
1. First full year of the truck toll
The Dutch truck toll charges trucks over 3.5 tonnes per kilometre on motorways and selected roads. The rate depends on weight and CO₂ class: on average about 19 cents per kilometre, while zero-emission trucks pay a fraction of that. With the 2026 discount ending on 31 December 2026, 2027 is the first full year at the full rate. Expect hauliers to pass the cost on in freight rates, and the business case for electric trucks to improve.
2. Stricter zero-emission zones
Between 2025 and 2030, zero-emission zones for freight are being introduced in 28 Dutch cities and at Schiphol. Their transition rules tighten in steps:
| Vehicle | Access to zero-emission zones until |
|---|---|
| Euro 5 delivery van | 1 January 2027 |
| Euro 6 delivery van | 1 January 2028 (the government wants to extend this to 2029) |
| Euro 6 truck, first registered 2017–2019 | 1 January 2028 |
| Euro 6 truck, first registered 2020–2024 | 1 January 2030 |
For city deliveries, 2027 is the year to replace older vans, move to electric vehicles or bundle deliveries through city hubs on the edge of the zones.
3. Paperless freight: eFTI from 9 July 2027
Under the EU’s electronic freight transport information (eFTI) regulation, authorities in every member state must accept freight documents shared electronically through certified eFTI platforms from 9 July 2027. That applies to road, rail, inland waterway and air transport. Shippers and carriers that already use eCMR will benefit first; others should choose a certified platform in 2027.
4. Carbon becomes a cost: CBAM and ETS2
- CBAM: importers of iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen file their first annual CBAM declaration, covering 2026 imports, by 30 September 2027. CBAM certificates go on sale from February 2027.
- ETS2: the new carbon price on road transport and heating fuels has been postponed to 1 January 2028, although auctioning of allowances starts in 2027. Fuel costs in 2028 will reflect it, so fleet decisions made in 2027 should too.
5. Deforestation rules for supply chains
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is currently scheduled to apply from 30 December 2026 for large and medium-sized companies, and from 30 June 2027 for most micro and small companies. Importers of cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, wood and products made from them need traceability data. The timing has already moved twice, so check the latest status.
6. Packaging redesign ahead of 2030
The EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) has applied since 12 August 2026. From 2030, e-commerce, transport and grouped packaging may contain at most 50% empty space, and void fill counts as empty space. Warehouses and webshops will use 2027 to right-size boxes and packing processes.
7. More port capacity in Rotterdam
Rotterdam’s transhipment losses in 2026 were caused by a lack of capacity, not demand. Terminal expansions in the Prinses Amaliahaven on the Maasvlakte, including Rotterdam World Gateway (adding 1.8 million TEU in phases) and APM Terminals (doubling capacity), should ease that from 2027.
8. Grid congestion shapes location choices
Grid congestion remains the biggest physical limit on new logistics sites, electric fleets and automation. Regional grid operators have more than 14,000 requests for extra capacity on their waiting lists, and parts of Noord-Holland, including the Schiphol region, may face constraints into the next decade. In 2027 expect more energy hubs on business parks, on-site solar and batteries, and site selection that starts with grid capacity.
9. Prime warehouse rents keep rising
The real estate market is splitting in two: modern, well-located buildings stay in demand, while older stock and secondary locations need incentives. With the pipeline shrinking, Savills expects prime rents to grow by at least 2.3% by 2028, and up to 3.4% in the strongest locations.
10. Cross-border e-commerce moves to EU stock
The EU’s €3 duty on low-value parcels, in force since July 2026, makes shipping single parcels from Asia more expensive. More non-EU sellers will import in bulk to EU warehouses instead, and the Netherlands, with Rotterdam, Schiphol and VAT deferment on imports, is a natural entry point. Read more about the €3 EU customs duty.
Netherlands logistics market size and segments
Mordor Intelligence estimates the Dutch freight and logistics market at USD 55.86 billion in 2026, growing about 4.2% a year to USD 68.5 billion by 2031. On that growth path, the market reaches about USD 58 billion in 2027 (our calculation). Road freight is by far the largest segment, and courier, express and parcel grows fastest, driven by e-commerce and cross-border flows.
Mordor Intelligence estimates.
The economy offers modest support: the CPB expects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2027, driven by exports and government spending, while inflation of around 3% and a small fall in purchasing power keep consumer spending in check.
Largest logistics companies in the Netherlands
The Dutch market is fragmented, with global groups alongside thousands of specialised local carriers and warehouse operators. In Logistiek.nl’s Top 100 Logistics Service Providers 2025, the 25th edition of the ranking, the top four were:
- DHL (number 1 for the fourth year in a row)
- DSV
- CEVA Logistics
- GXO Logistics
Other large players include Kuehne+Nagel, Rhenus, PostNL and family-owned Dutch firms in road transport and contract logistics.
Logistics hotspots: where the warehouses are
Most logistics space is concentrated in a few corridors between Rotterdam, Amsterdam and the German border. In Logistiek.nl’s annual expert ranking, Tilburg-Waalwijk was named the Netherlands’ top logistics hotspot again in 2025, its sixth win in seven years, with Venlo-Venray second. The 2024 top five shows the dominance of the south:
| Rank (2024) | Region |
|---|---|
| 1 | Midden-Brabant (Tilburg-Waalwijk) |
| 2 | West-Brabant (Breda, Oosterhout, Bergen op Zoom, Roosendaal, Moerdijk) |
| 3 | Noord-Limburg (Venlo-Venray) |
| 4 | Oost-Brabant (Den Bosch, Eindhoven, Helmond, Veghel, Oss) |
| 5 | Rivierenland (Tiel, Geldermalsen, Zaltbommel) |
These regions combine motorway, rail and inland-waterway links with short distances to Germany and Belgium, which is why most new European distribution centres open there.
Rotterdam and Schiphol: the two gateways
Port of Rotterdam. Europe’s largest port handled 428.4 million tonnes and 14.2 million TEU in 2025, with container volumes up 3.1%. In H1 2026, containers were flat at about 7.0 million TEU, but deepsea imports from Asia grew. The expansions on the Maasvlakte and projects such as the Porthos carbon capture network make Rotterdam both a container and an energy-transition hub. Rotterdam is also the European end of our Europe–China and Europe–Africa trade corridors.
Schiphol. Amsterdam’s airport handled 1.43 million tonnes of cargo in 2025, 4% less than in 2024. Political limits on flight numbers and night flights keep cargo capacity under pressure, which makes slots for full freighters valuable for high-tech and pharmaceutical shippers.
Why companies distribute to Europe from the Netherlands
- Gateways: Rotterdam and Schiphol connect Europe to Asia, the Americas and Africa.
- VAT deferment on imports: with an Article 23 licence, import VAT is reported in the VAT return instead of being paid at the border, which helps cash flow.
- Reach: from Brabant or Limburg, most of Western Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands is within next-day delivery.
- Logistics performance: the Netherlands scored 4.1 out of 5 in the World Bank’s 2023 Logistics Performance Index, joint third worldwide.
- Online shoppers: 94% of Dutch internet users shopped online in 2025, the highest share in the EU.
The trade-offs are high labour costs, scarce land and grid capacity, and the new road and carbon costs described above. Many companies therefore combine a Dutch hub with warehouses in lower-cost countries such as Poland. Compare our market reports on Germany, Poland and Sweden.
Read next: 3PL warehouse and fulfilment in the Netherlands · Shipping from China to Europe · 3PL vs in-house fulfilment costs
Frequently asked questions
What are the main logistics trends in the Netherlands for 2027?
The first full year of the truck toll, stricter zero-emission zones (Euro 5 vans banned from 1 January 2027), paperless freight documents under eFTI from 9 July 2027, the first CBAM carbon declarations, continued grid congestion and rising prime warehouse rents.
How big is the Netherlands logistics market?
Mordor Intelligence estimates the Dutch freight and logistics market at USD 55.86 billion in 2026, growing about 4.2% a year. On that path it reaches roughly USD 58 billion in 2027.
What changes for road transport in the Netherlands in 2027?
The truck toll applies for a full year without the temporary 2026 discount, and Euro 5 delivery vans can no longer enter zero-emission zones from 1 January 2027. Euro 6 vans follow from 2028.
When does eFTI apply?
From 9 July 2027, authorities in all EU member states must accept freight transport information shared electronically through certified eFTI platforms.
Where are the main logistics hotspots in the Netherlands?
Mostly in the south: Tilburg-Waalwijk has been ranked the top logistics hotspot six times in seven years, followed by Venlo-Venray, West-Brabant and Oost-Brabant.
Who are the largest logistics companies in the Netherlands?
In the Logistiek.nl Top 100 Logistics Service Providers 2025, DHL ranked first, followed by DSV, CEVA Logistics and GXO Logistics.
Is the Dutch logistics real estate market growing?
Demand is recovering, with take-up up about 12% year on year in the Q2 2026 report. Vacancy rose to 6.3%, but a shrinking pipeline is expected to stabilise it, and prime rents keep rising.
Sources
Figures are taken from the sources below and were checked in September–October 2026. Market estimates from research firms are labelled as estimates in the text.
- CPB – September projection 2026 (MEV 2027) – GDP and inflation 2027
- Savills – Dutch logistics market stabilises in 2026 – stock, vacancy, pipeline, rent outlook
- Cushman & Wakefield – Netherlands MarketBeat Industrial – take-up and investment, 2026
- Cushman & Wakefield – Dutch logistics real estate market remains resilient (May 2026)
- Port of Rotterdam – throughput figures – 2025 and H1 2026
- World Cargo News – Port of Rotterdam TEU growth limited in H1 2026
- Schiphol – 2025 annual results – cargo volumes
- Rijksoverheid – Vrachtwagenheffing – start date and 2026 discount
- Business.gov.nl – Zero-emission zones in the Netherlands – transition rules
- European Commission – eFTI Regulation
- ICAP – EU postpones ETS 2 by one year
- Thuiswinkel.org – Thuiswinkel Markt Monitor 2025 – online spending
- Logistiek.nl – Top 100 Logistics Service Providers 2025
- Logistiek.nl – Logistics Hotspots 2024 ranking
- Gemeente Waalwijk – Tilburg-Waalwijk again logistics hotspot number 1
- Eurostat – E-commerce statistics for individuals
- World Bank – Logistics Performance Index – LPI 2023
