Warehouse Market in Sweden 2026

Market Fundamentals: Recalibrated Equilibrium

The Swedish warehouse and logistics market enters 2026 in a state of recalibrated equilibrium, transitioning from volatile hyper-growth and speculative oversupply toward a disciplined, high-conviction recovery phase. Following historic development volumes of 2022-2024, during which completions frequently exceeded 1.4 million square meters annually, the market has undergone necessary inventory absorption.

As of early 2026, the sector is defined by distinct bifurcation between future-proof, Grade A assets and aging stock that increasingly faces obsolescence due to energy inefficiency, inadequate power infrastructure, and inability to support advanced automation. The macroeconomic backdrop is significantly more supportive, with the Swedish economy entering a recovery phase supported by stabilizing domestic demand and the Riksbank's decision to hold the policy rate at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic Framework

The Swedish economic landscape in 2026 is characterized by measured recovery. GDP growth is projected around 2.6% year-on-year, while inflation (CPIF) has stabilized near 2.3%. This stabilization has profound implications for the warehouse market, allowing for more predictable valuation models and tightening of the yield spread between prime and secondary assets.

The stabilization of interest rates has particularly benefited the investment market. After relative inactivity in 2024 and early 2025, core institutional investors are re-emerging, targeting best-in-class assets in prime locations. Transaction volumes, which reached SEK 171.2 billion in 2025, are expected to remain robust as domestic and Nordic capital continues to view logistics as a defensive and liquid segment.

Supply-Demand Dynamics: From Speculation to Precision

The Swedish logistics market is emerging from a phase where heavy speculative completions in 2023 and 2024 led to elevated vacancy rates. As of Q1 2025, the vacancy rate in Sweden's modern logistics stock rose to 7.9%, primarily due to projects initiated during the post-pandemic boom. However, regional variation remains high.

Pipeline Normalization and Construction Trends

Development volumes declined significantly in 2025 to align with historical averages, with completions dropping below 0.5 million square meters from the 1.4 million square meters added in 2024. However, a strong recovery in construction activity is forecasted for 2026, with completions expected to reach approximately 1.0 million square meters.

The share of speculative development is normalizing at around 20%, a significant decrease from previous peaks. Developers now prioritize pre-letting agreements before initiating construction, reflecting a fundamental shift toward risk mitigation. This trend is particularly evident in the build-to-suit segment, which is increasingly reserved for large or specialized facilities.

Diversification of Demand Drivers

Occupier demand in 2026 is no longer solely driven by traditional retail and e-commerce. New structural drivers have emerged:

Defense Expansion: Following Sweden's accession to NATO, the Swedish Armed Forces are actively expanding their logistics footprint. With a defense budget of SEK 143 billion in 2025, military-related demand is breathing new life into older industrial corridors and creating demand for specialized, high-security assets.

Nearshoring and Reshoring: Once a short-term tactic to address pandemic-era disruptions, nearshoring has become a long-term strategic consideration. Evolving supply chains and geopolitical shifts are gradually increasing demand for domestic logistics space to ensure resilience.

Automotive and Pharmaceutical Sectors: The transition to electric vehicles and the growing need for specialized pharmaceutical storage are driving demand for facilities with high power specifications and temperature-controlled environments.

E-commerce: The Sustained Engine of Demand

The Swedish e-commerce market continues to be a primary catalyst for logistics real estate, with projected growth reaching an estimated market size of USD 15.68 billion in 2026. The market is characterized by high maturity, sophisticated digital infrastructure, and a consumer base increasingly comfortable with mobile commerce.

Market Scale and Growth Projections

The sector is expected to achieve a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.71% between 2025 and 2033, although some estimates for the broader e-commerce ecosystem suggest a higher CAGR of up to 13.93% during the 2026-2032 period. This growth is propelled by enhanced smartphone accessibility and a structural shift in consumer preferences toward online shopping for convenience and variety.

Key Sectors and Logistical Implications

The expansion of e-commerce is not uniform across all categories. In Sweden, several sectors are particularly dominant:

Fashion and Apparel: This sector accounts for a substantial portion of online sales, with projected GMV for 2027 between SEK 100-150 billion. The high volume of returns necessitates sophisticated reverse logistics capabilities and efficient sorting facilities.

Consumer Electronics: High demand for updated gadgets among tech-savvy Swedes continues to drive volumes in the "Computers" and "Electronics" categories, which together account for nearly 47.37% of estimated platform-based sales.

Food and Beverages: The rise of online grocery shopping is creating a surge in demand for cold-chain warehousing and urban distribution centers capable of handling perishable goods.

The Last-Mile Challenge and Urban Logistics

As consumer expectations for rapid delivery (same-day or next-day) solidify, e-commerce businesses are prioritizing in-city distribution centers that can serve dense population centers efficiently. In Gothenburg and Stockholm, self-driving robots and electric cargo bikes are being tested to reduce the carbon intensity and congestion associated with last-mile delivery.

Regional Analysis: The Strategic Logistics Crescent

Sweden's logistics landscape is anchored by a strategic crescent of hubs that facilitate both domestic consumption and international trade. The ranking of these locations has historically been dominated by the Gothenburg region, though competition from the Helsingborg-Malmö (Öresund) corridor has intensified.

The Gothenburg Region: Industrial Powerhouse

Ranked consistently as the top logistics location in Sweden for over 20 years, Gothenburg is the Nordic region's primary gateway for international trade. The presence of Scandinavia's largest container port, combined with an extensive rail network and strong air connections via Landvetter Airport, makes it a central node for both imports and exports. The region currently manages over 2 million square meters of storage space in direct connection to its shipping terminals.

The Stockholm-Mälardalen Region: Consumption Engine

As Sweden's largest city, Stockholm acts as the country's main "consumption motor". The region is characterized by a "logistics crescent" along Lake Mälaren, including hubs like Rosersberg, Enköping, and Eskilstuna. The Stockholm Norvik Port, which opened in 2020, has significantly enhanced the region's deep-sea freight capacity and is currently being developed as a CO2 logistics hub to support carbon capture and storage initiatives.

The Jönköping-Nässjö Region: Nordic Midpoint

Jönköping's central location along the E4 motorway makes it the ideal site for Nordic central warehouses. From this hub, 80% of the Swedish population can be reached within four hours. The region is also a midpoint between Copenhagen, Oslo, and Helsinki, making it a preferred location for companies managing pan-Nordic distributions.

The Öresund Region: Gateway to the Continent

Skåne and the Öresund region serve as the bridge between Sweden and continental Europe. The density of population—nearly 4 million people across the region—drives high demand for logistics space. The upcoming Fehmarn Belt fixed link, scheduled for completion in 2029, is expected to further solidify the region's importance by drastically reducing transit times to Germany.

Infrastructure and Connectivity

Sweden's ability to support its warehouse market is intrinsically linked to its ongoing investments in transportation infrastructure. However, rising costs and technical complexities have delayed several high-profile projects.

Major Rail and Road Developments

The West Link (Västlänken): This substantial rail project beneath central Gothenburg includes the new underground station, Centralen, and 2 km of rail tunnels. Although aimed at increasing capacity and reducing travel times, the project has faced technical challenges related to tunneling through rock and clay.

The North Bothnia Line (Norrbotniabanan): A new 270 km coastal railway between Umeå and Luleå is currently under construction. The section between Umeå and Dåva is expected to open for freight traffic in 2026, which will significantly reduce transportation costs for northern industries.

The Stockholm Bypass (Förbifart Stockholm): One of Sweden's largest infrastructure projects, this 21 km motorway link (mostly in tunnels) is designed to redirect traffic away from the city center. However, unforeseen tunneling complexities have delayed its completion to 2030, and costs have escalated to between EUR 4.48-4.7 billion.

The Energy Crisis: Power as Prime Location Factor

In 2026, the traditional mantra of "location, location, location" has been supplemented by "power, power, power." Sweden faces a structural capacity shortage in its electricity grid that is significantly impacting the development and operation of modern warehouses.

The Capacity Ceiling

While Sweden produces a surplus of electricity, the grid infrastructure is often too "thin" to handle the amount of electricity that needs to be transported from production sites in the north to consumption centers in the south. This capacity shortage has already led grid companies to deny connections to new industrial consumers in several metropolitan regions.

The impact is severe. For every SEK billion not invested in the electricity grid, business investments are delayed or lost to a value equivalent to SEK 8 billion in GDP annually. In 2026, the network capacity ceiling in Stockholm and Uppsala counties remains a critical concern for developers looking to build highly automated facilities.

The Requirements of Automation

Advanced, fully automated warehouses require between three and five times more power than traditional facilities. As a result, securing a reliable and high-capacity power supply has become a top-three factor globally for logistics location selection. Developers are increasingly being forced to look for "power-ready" sites or invest in micro-grid solutions to bypass grid delays.

The Rise of Battery Storage (BESS)

To mitigate these risks, battery storage capacity in Sweden is expected to grow to 100 MW in 2026. Commercial and Industrial players are investing in Battery Energy Storage Systems to stabilize their power supply, reduce peak demand charges, and optimize the use of on-site renewable energy like solar.

Sustainability and Future-Proof Warehousing

Sustainability has moved from a "nice-to-have" feature to a core requirement for institutional investors and Grade A occupiers. In 2026, green building certifications (e.g., BREEAM, LEED) are standard differentiators for core assets.

Net-Zero Construction

The Swedish market is home to pioneering sustainable projects, such as the world's first net-zero warehouse built by NREP and operated by Logicenters in Bålsta. This facility utilizes cross-laminated timber (CLT) instead of steel, organic insulation that binds CO2, and green cement foundations to achieve 100% carbon neutrality over its entire lifecycle without relying on external offsetting. It is designed to be "energy positive," returning excess solar power to the grid.

ESG as a Financial Mandate

Investors are increasingly focusing on the pragmatics of climate transition plans over mere certifications. This shift is reflected in the financing market; for instance, Swedish Logistic Property (SLP) reported that 94% of its loan portfolio was classified as sustainable or green financing by mid-2025. Companies that fail to adapt their older assets to modern energy-efficiency standards face "obsolescence risk" and negative absorption as occupiers trade up to more efficient facilities.

Pricing, Yields, and Investment Market

The logistics sector was among the quickest to reprice during the 2022-2024 period, and by 2026, yields have stabilized, reflecting the sector's relative strength amid broader economic uncertainty.

Yield Stability and Divergence

Prime yields in Stockholm and Gothenburg have held firm at 4.85%, while yields in the Öresund region and regional cities are slightly higher at 5.20% and 5.40%, respectively. However, a widening yield spread has emerged between prime and secondary assets; prices for top-tier warehouses are firming up as capital focuses on best-in-class, future-proof facilities, while yields for secondary assets remain flat or soft.

Rental Dynamics

Prime rents have remained stable across all major markets since Q2 2024. While there was significant rental growth in 2023, it has since stagnated as demand softened. In secondary markets with higher vacancy rates, rental growth is largely muted and generally tracks the increase in the Consumer Price Index. Occupiers are currently resistant to paying premiums for ESG features, but they regard modern specifications (tall clear heights, automation-ready flooring, and high power) as essential checklist items.

Transaction Activity and Key Players

The investment market for logistics remains active, with SEK 9.4 billion transacted in the industrial and logistics segment during Q4 2025 alone. Domestic investors account for roughly 68% of full-year capital deployment, followed by Nordic (20%) and non-Nordic (12%) investors.

Key players such as Catena, SLP, and Logicenters continue to shape the market through consolidation and strategic development:

Catena: In late 2025, Catena signed a Letter of Intent to acquire a SEK 9 billion portfolio of 20 logistics properties across Sweden, Denmark, and Finland, extending their average unexpired lease term to over seven years and facilitating their entry into the Finnish market.

Swedish Logistic Property (SLP): SLP continues to expand through acquisitions and value-adding development, such as its 61,500 sqm project in Hallsberg and various extensions in Nässjö and Gothenburg.

Logicenters: As the logistics arm of NREP, Logicenters is leading the market in sustainable developments and high-specification facilities in prime corridors like Enköping and Bålsta.

Strategic Outlook: Navigating the Recovery

The 2026 outlook for the Swedish warehouse market is one of "cautious optimism". While the sector has successfully navigated the interest rate shocks of previous years, it must now contend with structural challenges related to energy supply and infrastructure costs.

Key Predictions for 2026-2027

Market Bifurcation: The gap between Grade A, power-ready assets and aging stock will continue to expand. Older properties in well-located areas will increasingly become targets for repositioning or redevelopment to meet modern standards.

E-commerce Resilience: E-commerce will likely reach nearly 25% of all new leasing activity by the end of 2026 as online penetration continues to rise. This will sustain demand for both "big box" fulfillment centers and urban last-mile hubs.

Technological Integration: The adoption of AI for route optimization and inventory management will become standard, although limited power grid capacity will remain a restriction for companies wishing to implement full-scale automation.

Inward Yield Pressure: Provided the macroeconomic environment remains stable and interest rates do not spike, there is an expectation of modest inward pressure on prime yields in 2026 as investor competition for high-quality assets increases.